The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a crucial warning regarding a possible dengue outbreak in October. According to their latest forecast, conditions across Pakistan are becoming ideal for the spread of dengue fever, especially in the post-monsoon season.
The PMD identified ten major cities most vulnerable to a dengue outbreak, including Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Hyderabad, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Larkana, and Multan. In addition, other regions impacted by post-monsoon rains are also at high risk of dengue transmission.
Over the past ten years, dengue fever has increasingly affected Pakistan’s population, particularly during the post-monsoon period when environmental conditions become conducive to mosquito breeding.
Critical Period for Dengue Transmission
The PMD highlighted that the period between September 20 and December 5 is especially dangerous for the spread of dengue. Environmental factors such as temperature and humidity play a significant role. Dengue transmission is most likely to occur when temperatures range between 26°C and 29°C for three to five consecutive weeks, with humidity levels hovering around 60%.
Additionally, rainfall exceeding 27mm, followed by a time lag of up to three weeks, further elevates the risk of a dengue outbreak.
Mosquito Activity and Breeding Conditions
Dengue-carrying mosquitoes are most active during two peak times: two hours after sunrise and two hours before sunset. Their breeding comes to a halt only when temperatures drop below 16°C, making the current climate conditions a significant cause for concern.
PMD Urges Immediate Action
Based on an in-depth analysis of historical data and the current climate outlook, PMD experts warned that since mid-September, the conditions for dengue transmission have been highly favorable.
The PMD has called upon relevant authorities, including national health agencies and dengue control centers, to take urgent preemptive measures in the affected regions. They have also urged these organizations to stay updated through the PMD’s website and follow guidelines to control the outbreak.
Conclusion
With dengue fever posing a growing health threat, Pakistan is facing a critical period where preventive measures are essential. The PMD’s warning serves as a reminder for the public and health authorities to remain vigilant and prepared as October approaches.
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